'He's the horse to beat' - Fasig-Tipton's Michael Adolphson on the ones to watch at the Dubai Racing Carnival

The schedule of the Dubai Racing Carnival has changed over the last couple of years, now running from November to March. Has it been a change for the better? 

Carnival season is the best season. Superb people, excellent horses and held in one of the world’s great cities. The carnival became an amalgam of the now-defunct domestic season and the previous layout of the Dubai World Cup Carnival a couple years ago, also restructuring its incentives and, I suppose, moving with the times.

While technically less racing is available, more carnival-branded racing is on offer, which is fantastic, and with that comes a broader menu of races for owners who want a piece of the Dubai action, which is an all-round good. 

I believe trainers realise it remains one of the best places in the world you can send your horse in the winter, with the quality of facilities and weather offering so many positives, especially for two factions: horses who need fast ground (or want to try dirt) and trainers who are tired of bad winters causing hiccups in training. 

Michael Adolphson is Fasig-Tipton's Middle East representative Credit: Edward Whitaker

If you're judging by better or worse, the racing quality is as good as it can be, given the population. We've seen some fantastic, world-class horses develop here over the last couple of years, but there’s always room for improvement. If there isn’t, then you’re in the wrong business.

It's always great to have more horses and I think that's attainable with some restructuring of the racing programme and incentives, as well as hiring a director of racing/racing secretary, as there are Stateside, to write the rolling conditions book based on the actual population and constantly communicate with the yards about rosters. All in all, I see nothing but potential and there’s no better place to have a horse at this time of year.

Have any horses caught your eye, particularly in the early part of the season?

There are some progressive sorts. Billy Webster has taken like a duck to water in the Doug Watson programme, and already has two wins. I'm excited to see if he enjoys the flat, quick turf at Meydan. 

Meshtri could be anything, especially with his impressive pedigree and front-running gears. His Al Maktoum Mile win was very smart. His best trip is a question, being a Medaglia D’Oro out of a classy sprinter, so I’m interested to see where he lands. 

Group 1 winner Satu was eyecatching in finishing fourth on his local debut and looks one who'll go in one direction or the other off such a big comeback. If he goes the optimum, he’s very exciting.

Meshri was an eyecatching winner of the Al Maktoum Mile Sponsored By Emaar last timeCredit: Dubai Racing Club

Some defeated juveniles, now three-year-olds, who really caught my eye were Estmrar, Diamond Dealer and Golden Redemption. All three are full of potential and physically looking to progress markedly. 

Colour Up is probably my favourite horse to visit in the yards, as he's the kindest horse I’ve been around. He turns it on when he races and could be sitting on a very good season. His Watson stablemate Oasis Boy was very impressive winning on his seasonal debut over seven furlongs, a trip short of his best and while being struck with an opponent’s whip less than a furlong out. 

How have the tracks at Meydan been riding?

It's been nice to see a bit of balance with the Meydan dirt. There was one meeting where it was a merry-go-round speedway, like the 2017-18 season, but then it evened out the next meeting and was far better. The turf course, of which we’ve had one exposure, is riding quick, almost 'American firm’, hence the times we saw on December 20. I like it when it’s proper ‘good’ and the grass is a few centimetres longer, like in years past, but that’s just personal preference.

If American horsemen are paying attention and this turf track stays the way it's been, it’s a really good time to consider sending over their turf sprinters. Motorious is one I believe could come over and win or go quite close under these conditions in the Al Quoz Sprint.

Your role has been to spread the word about Fasig-Tipton around the Gulf. What has the interest been like from the region at your sales?

Interest has been phenomenal. Some of the most racing-dedicated and lovely clients come from this region. We've been blessed to have buyers, especially at our Midlantic May Two-Year-Olds In Training Sale – which is this year on May 19-20 – from the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar and Libya. We had a record turnout from this side of the world at the May sale last year and then again at the July Selected Horses of Racing Age Sale in Kentucky last summer.

There has been lively Gulf interest in the Fasig-Tipton Midlantic 2 Y-O-in Training SaleCredit: Fasig-Tipton Photos

Of course, it just comes down to offering top-quality horses from trusted consignors who fit the Middle East so well. The equation isn’t complicated and the team behind me at Fasig-Tipton has been exceptional at keeping it focused.

Midlantic May, which is held during Preakness week, is the only breeze-up in the world on dirt, which makes a huge difference for agents, trainers and investors, and we've accordingly seen excellent results on the Middle East tracks already. Long may it continue and progress.

Although the breeze-up sale in Dubai came to an end, do you think there’s still potential for holding auctions in the region?

This is the Middle East – there’s endless potential if there’s financial backing and fierce execution. While I really enjoyed the environment of the sale and the new flavour it brought to Dubai World Cup week, its flaws need to be addressed if they wish to try again.

You’ve been a jockeys’ agent in addition to your other positions in Dubai. Anyone on your books for this season?

I'm blessed to work with three legends and all-around great guys. I book for Richard Mullen and handle all the Middle East business of Cristian Demuro and Antonio Fresu. These are the kinds of world-class riders who give you just as much confidence atop a two-mile stayer as a five-furlong sprinter, dirt or turf.

The Saudi Cup and Dubai World Cup meetings are coming up fast. Any early thoughts on the features?

Rebellious Stage is one I think could be really interesting as he matures. He should be a serious player in the Riyadh Dirt Sprint. I’ve mentioned Motorious but another swift American worth watching is the improving Bentornato, who should serve it up to them in both of the big dirt sprints here.

One can’t mention him without bringing up his Breeders' Cup Sprint conqueror Straight No Chaser. He's quick enough to win one of these big sprints, but to see him win both would be a surprise. 

Speaking of 2024 Breeders’ Cup Sprint runners, Raging Torrent is the horse to beat in the Godolphin Mile after his Malibu Stakes win. Doug O’Neill goes after his third win in the race and could very well do it with this proper horse.

Measured Time entered major consideration with his performance in the Al Rashidiya Sponsored By EmaarCredit: Dubai Racing Club

Measured Time should be a force in the Dubai Turf, with or without Romantic Warrior, especially with having a bit of time to rest coming into this campaign. There is a chance they’ll meet on January 24 in the Jebel Hatta, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the former is given more time after his massive effort in December. 

Having Romantic Warrior here is phenomenal. He's done so much already, so anything he does from here is icing. 

In terms of the Saudi Cup and/or Dubai World Cup, three I’d like to see clash are Sierra Leone, his cousin Forever Young and the unexposed Mindframe. 

Mindframe is less heralded but could be something special if he keeps moving in the direction I think he will, but connections could be more inclined to keep him Stateside. The same could be said for Sierra Leone. I feel we underestimate horses like Forever Young, and the Japanese in general. He could be lengths better than 2024 by the time he gets to Dubai in April 2025 – and that’s scary.

Finally, a horse I enjoy a lot who was unlucky not to be in the win photo at the Breeders’ Cup is the hard-knocking Star Of Mystery. Her half-sister Althiqa progressed nicely with age and, if she does the same, I think she'll be a force in the turf sprint division.

Any other horses you’re looking forward to seeing again?

With his new penchant for changing his lead, it's been fun to see Tuz develop into his ultimate self among the dirt sprinters. We’ve seen him gain three to four lengths out of it! Another, if he learns to do the same, will be Al Nefud, likewise from the Bhupat Seemar yard. 

We can’t mention that yard without bringing up Laurel River, whose return after winning the 2024 Dubai World Cup is highly anticipated. His cruising rate is something to behold, but I don’t think anyone will be giving him an easy lead.

Kabirkhan works at Meydan racecourse ahead of his run in the Dubai World CupCredit: Edward Whitaker

Kabirkhan piques my interest the most. He spent some valuable downtime recovering at WinStar Farm in Kentucky and has returned well, while being trained up to his Al Maktoum Challenge defence on January 24. As a student of pedigrees, I'm beyond excited to see how he pans out. We know he's a California Chrome, but do we remember the difference between four-year-old and five-year-old Chrome? It was about five lengths and a ton of physique.

It took another titan to slay him at the end of a long season, Arrogate, but his progression underlines how exciting his best son could be. He's in the right hands with Watson to be a serious player in all the big events the first four months of the year.

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