'It's been uniquely challenging' – Matt Eves on a breeze-up season like no other

I don’t think any of us would want a repeat of this year as this was a tough season for all breeze-up consignors. From early March it was clear we would be facing challenges as a result of the coronavirus pandemic to work out when, where and under what conditions the two-years-olds would be sold.

In spite of these challenges, most consignors will be breathing a sigh of relief as they exit the other side with cash in the bank to head back to the yearling market. However, pinhookers will be cautious not to overexpose themselves on yearlings, as most economies are staring down the barrel of a large recession as the economic impact of a global health crisis bites.

Year-on-year trends

After the season the breeze-up sales have experienced, it is tough to make direct year-on-year comparisons between auctions due to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on timing of sales, and given the number of orders that were filled directly with consignors.

Overall, total volumes of two-year-olds were down but consignors were getting them sold at a similar rate to 2019. The average sales price was only down seven per cent, but the true comparison will be masked by pre-breeze sales.

When you dig down by sale, there are some surprising facets of the market.

*Osarus has been excluded given the entirely online nature of the sale

Goffs UK and Arqana pulled a masterstroke by putting their sales together, with both companies promoting the one event and getting buyers there who may have only attended one or the other but ended up bidding at both.

The introduction of Arqana's agents/trainers commission structure at Doncaster, in which commissions are built into vendors cost, no doubt encouraged spending and should be analysed carefully by sales companies. It’s an extra expense to sellers, but surety of commission payment saw buyers take orders to that sale over Tattersalls.

Tattersalls Ascot prices were buoyed by combining that sale with the Craven. Rather than suffering, having the buyers at the sale no doubt brought a better trade at the Ascot sale. Personally, I think the Tattersalls team should look at running this format in future years as it is one less sale for the buyers to attend.

Tattersalls continue to have work to do to return the Craven to being Europe’s premier breeze-up sale. In 2020 they lost the top median and average price to Arqana, after losing the highest aggregate consigner purchase costs in 2019. The Craven15 bonus is a great initiative but the reality is prize-money in Britain is so pitiful that focus needs to revert to how to grow the international market for that sale. Racing TV would usually have shown the Tattersalls breezes. For reasons unknown, this coverage was stopped just when remote information and data was most required.

The lack of participation from Godolphin in 2020 made the top of the market at the Craven look really thin. There were only a couple of significant orders and we need to put every effort into bringing top-end buyers to our market. We have a great product in terms of track results and international appeal, so it is really important that in 2021 we do everything we can to grow the international buying bench.

This particularly matters at the Craven, as it falls at a similar time to the OBS Sales in the US. Given the growth in turf racing in the US, getting American buyers in the market should be a real focus for all the sales companies. If I had the choice, I’d combine the Craven and Ascot events again and schedule a date to avoid a clash with OBS - but that’s entirely my personal opinion.

Sires on fire

Last year, analysis of the first-season sires at the breezes produced a clear standout with Night Of Thunder. Of the top five first-season sires this year we have already seen success for Coulsty and Mehmas at stakes level, so it is no surprise to see them at the top of the times list.

The one surprise for me was Shaala, with his faster breezers having a larger average stride length compared to the top ranked horses on the list, it may suggest that he’ll potentially have some quicker horses towards the backend of the season over seven furlongs.

New Bay and Pearl Secret both have similar offspring profiles with above average speed and stride.

*Average time rank was 77 and average stride 6.77m across all sales for first-season sires.

New names to the fore

It was great to see new names coming to the fore both on the track and in the sales ring. All consignors are ultimately assessed by buyers on the performance of their graduates on the track, so the main concern for every consignor should be how to improve the quality of their offerings and giving them the best chance of delivering on the track.

A greater spread of vendors scoring at Group level can only be a good thing for competition in the sales ring, as these newer consignors are proving they can be trusted to produce high-quality horses. Buyers will soon realise they may miss out by just going back to the same consignors they bought from previously. The more names the buyers trust, the better it is for the overall market we operate in.

The standout performers of 2020 to date are surely Kilbrew Stables, who sold Steel Bull to Michael O’Callaghan on July 1 for only £28,000 and by the end of the month he had won the Molecomb Stakes.

Steel Bull: Molecomb Stakes winner was sold at the Goffs UK Breeze-Up Sale by Kilbrew StablesCredit: Edward Whitaker

Robson Aguiar advertised his outstanding talent at picking cheap horses in the ring that turn out to be rockets on the track. Two Robson sold privately prior to breezing turned out to be Norfolk winner The Lir Jet and the Sweet Solera-winning Star Of Emaraaty, ensuring his offerings will not be overlooked next year.

There is no doubt buyers, especially the high-end players, are analysing racetrack outcomes from previous years before buying.

Finding the missing punters

During the Craven Sale, a leading consignor noted that "The agents have worked very hard but obviously they're struggling with punters." The single biggest question that needs to be addressed is how to grow the number of ‘punters’.

Jack Cantillon and his Bargain Breezer syndicate proved plenty out there have an insatiable appetite for data, to the point he couldn’t add anyone else to his Whatsapp group as he had reached the 256 maximum! The best thing about this exercise was that through open provision of data to the Whatsapp group for their own study, numerous additional horses were bought beyond the intended three. This is a microcosm of what will happen when reliable data is well disseminated.

Our own media rights debate

As the media rights debate persists in Britain and the argument about who ‘owns’ the product is never far from the headlines, it seems to me as consignors we are missing a massive trick.

Ownership of data is one of the most powerful and valuable tools in all markets. At the minute, I own the data collected at the sales for my own commercial benefit because I simply put the effort in to collect it. It won’t be missed by those following the media rights debate in Britain that the person controlling the data long term controls the commercial benefit.

We should stop arguing about timing at sales, that bird flew long ago. Instead, consignors should be getting on the front foot in taking ownership of data and commercialising its use to grow our market. The majority of people buying horses will have initially had a bet, so we should be presenting data from the sales for betting on maidens in simple graphical format to help grow our market and find new 'punters'.

We could do so much with the data but most importantly, this data could really go a long way to selling milers and stayers. We could provide stride and cadence data in the form shown by Total Performance Data, which will have a positive impact in helping to sell horses that are more than clock-busting sprinters. If we stop hiding data and provide it there is no way the next Libertarian or Trip To Paris would sell for £20,000 as they will stand out on metrics like stride length.

The breeze-ups are unique as the risk of working out if - or how - a horse gallops is taken by the consignor, and the buyer gets a free look under the bonnet. Buyers have rich data to help inform their decisions but somehow we make it hard for buyers to both collect and disseminate data.

This year proved we need to make it much easier for buyers. At Goffs UK, no one collected all breeze times with the wind playing havoc and blowing over timing gates. We need to move to saddle cloth devices as used by Arc and open up the provision of information.

None of this is rocket science. We shouldn’t make it difficult for buyers to get the information they want to make an informed decision. The first sales company to embrace stride data combined with published times will get a massive jump on the others in terms of growing their market and customers as it is proven that data availability grows the market (look at betting in Hong Kong as an example).

A new set of guidelines

I view anything that makes our sales more attractive to international buyers as positive, so I believe the recent changes at Tattersalls and Goffs UK regarding new restrictions relating to use of corticosteroids and bronchodilators is a positive. This brings the sales ring in line with race days and puts European breeze-up sales in line with the recent move from US auction houses.

Online advancements

The introduction of online bidding was a huge success, particularly in keeping clearance rates up. I have to confess, after we had finished selling and while sitting bored on conference calls I was bidding away on breezers that came out well on my data.

Johnny Hassett updates his followers from the Tattersalls sales groundCredit: Laura Green

Online bidding gives buyers not at the ring the means to engage, and whilst some of the platforms used could do with being more user friendly, it has been a major positive that helped underpin clearance rates.

It would be wrong not to comment on the impact of social media during this sales season too. Not every engagement was positive but it was a big step up from some of our previous dull content that we produced in the sector. Overall the social media engagement with the sector was a big positive and we should not go back on that.

New social media stars were discovered, such as Johnny Hassett, who went from nearly no Twitter followers to thousands through his really candid and real approach to social media. Another outstanding player through lockdown was Thoroughbred Tales, who gave many consignors a platform to explain the ins and outs of breeze-up sales.

Conclusions

It has been a uniquely challenging year but hopefully there are some positives to come from it, such as new consignors hitting the mark in the ring and on the track and social media engagement increasing.

The debate on official times has moved on and many are questioning why we make the data that buyers now routinely use so hard to collect. For me, I would only want public times introduced alongside stride data to aid with selling of the milers and stayers.

Tattersalls continue to have a challenge with how they return the Craven to being the premier sale in Europe. It would be a big surprise, but perhaps they will embrace data and be the first sale to offer international buyers a really full data set they can get behind to grow their sale.

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