Keith Melrose: 'Look out for enhanced place terms that make each-way multiples particularly attractive'

Our top tipsters talk you through their Cheltenham Festival betting tactics. Next up: betting editor Keith Melrose.

Does your form study or betting routine change at all during Cheltenham?

I usually have 90 per cent of my bets on chases, but at Cheltenham that will go down to more like three-quarters because I will have looked at a broader cross-section of races. I have a few other little routines, but they're effectively superstitions that don't change how I pick horses. It seems embarrassingly obvious, but I've only realised in recent years that sticking as closely as possible to what you normally do is the best approach.

Do you prefer to get most/all of your bets on before the first, or go race by race?

Maybe 80-90 per cent of my bets will be put on before racing starts. The bookies' offers in the morning especially make betting then much more attractive. Also, if I bet race by race, I start having too many silly little bets on 50-1 chances who might run well but never win.

What is your view on multiples betting at Cheltenham?

Every time I look at the stats on short-priced favourites, the findings are the same: it's the punting equivalent of a slow puncture. In the long run you'll never make money and your expected value only gets worse by increasing the number of selections. Watch out for special offers, though, especially the enhanced place terms that make each-way multiples particularly attractive at Cheltenham.

Is that different from your normal stance on them?

Not really, as my attitude is somewhat maths-based. Because the shorties at Cheltenham get even more attention than usual and the place concessions tend to be extra generous, I will have more each-way multiples and be more firmly against perming the hotpots.

What's a type of bet that everyone forgets at Cheltenham, but shouldn't?

Betting in running. The idea that Cheltenham is racing's Olympics has a lot to answer for, as it gives the impression the races are all totally fair and that only ability matters. The truth is the same biases you see there all through the year still exist in March. Reading the race is arguably more of an edge than knowing the form, as the latter is studied to death in the weeks and months before the festival. This is all the stronger if the rain comes as soft ground hardens a lot of the biases I look for, such as front-runners on the chase track.

Do you tend to take a breather at any point in the week?

It's all race-dependent. I used to pack up for the day on Wednesday after the Champion Chase, when the three races to come were the Cross Country, Fred Winter and Champion Bumper. But now the Grand Annual, one of my favourite betting races of the week, is race six on Wednesday. Nowadays, I'm more likely to just draw stumps after the Gold Cup and turn my attention to finding Saturday's Midlands National winner.

You're allowed to consign one myth of Cheltenham Festival betting to the bin. Which would it be?

The idea that someone without a winner by Wednesday evening is having a bad week. These races are so competitive and so central to everyone's season, that any observation like that is much more likely to be variance. You'll notice that this sort of hokum never actually influences the markets.

Also in this series:

Graeme Rodway: 'Lots of people think this race is a lottery that should be watched rather than bet on - it's not' 

Robbie Wilders: 'Don't include short-priced favourites in extensive multiples - odds-on chances are always beaten' 

Tom Segal: 'I rarely bet each-way and prefer to back a couple in a race instead' 

Paul Kealy: 'I get involved with exactas and trifectas - you know the pools are going to be strong' 

Do you want £200+ of free bets for Cheltenham? Racing Post have got the best offers, all in one place. Visit racingpost.com/freebets to find out more.