Dispelling the myths: don't always believe what you hear

Betting on Racing is an app-exclusive daily punting guide from three of the Racing Post's most renowned experts: Tom Segal, Paul Kealy and David Jennings. A new instalment will be published every weekday for the next three weeks.

Don't automatically believe all you hear: check it out for yourself as a lot of it can be complete and utter nonsense.

Take sprints at Bellewstown, for instance. There is a theory out there that you must be drawn low and there is little point showing up if you are not in one of the inside five or six stalls. It makes sense too. Bellewstown is a tight track where it is hard to make up ground. Wrong. It is far more advantageous to be drawn middle to wide in 5f races at the unique track, contrary to popular belief.

There were two races over the minimum trip at the first meeting of the 2022 season at Bellewstown and the winners came out of stalls five and nine. The first three home in the 5f rated race were drawn 5-6-11, while the first three home in the 5f handicap half an hour later came out of 9-11-4. It has been a recurring theme in the last decade, yet if you fancy one in a sprint at Bellewstown drawn in stall 11 or 12, you can guarantee someone will tell you it can't win from out there.

We are often led to believe that Cheltenham, Aintree and Punchestown will be run on spring ground and that, when placing ante-post bets, we should focus on those who like good going.

However, that isn't always the case. At this year's festival it lashed down with rain on Wednesday and most of the races on that day were run in heavy conditions. 

Furthermore, the 2018, 2019 and 2020 Cheltenham Festivals were run on predominantly soft ground and the pressure on new clerk of the course Jon Pullin to produce what many consider perfect – good to soft – ground for the first day means that the meeting is rarely run on fast going.

So forget about lining up ante-post bets for spring horses who like genuine good ground because there is certainly no guarantee they will get their conditions when the big day arises.

Sam Waley-Cohen roars in celebration as Noble Yeats wins the 2022 Grand NationalCredit: Alan Crowhurst (Getty Images)

The Grand National is not the jumping test it used to be either. Once upon a time it was the ultimate examination of a chaser. Not anymore. And, if you have a slightly dodgy jumper who doesn't get very high, the fences at Aintree might actually suit as you can flick through the top of them. Don't be one bit surprised to see a whole host of useful novices tackling the National over the next couple of years.

That is what Emmet Mullins did with Noble Yeats in 2022 and look at how that played out.

Despite what you might hear, you no longer need a seasoned staying chaser to win the Grand National. A talented novice who hasn't reached his or her peak rating yet might be the way forward. 

Expect a whole host of classy novices, perhaps those who have contested Grade 1s during the season, to turn up at Aintree in April for the world's most famous jumps race. Times have changed, the fences have changed and approaches have changed.

Tomorrow: Tom Segal on the importance of times

Read more in our Betting on Racing series:

Paul Kealy: don't be scared of big market drifters - and be prepared to go in again   

Tom Segal: why ante-post betting has never been more attractive   

David Jennings: the eyecatching smaller yard link-ups worth noting