PSG vs Borussia Dortmund prediction, betting tips and odds: Semi-final rivals can turn on the style in Paris

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Where to watch PSG vs Borussia Dortmund

You can watch PSG vs Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League at 8pm on Tuesday, May 7, live on TNT Sports 1

Match prediction & best bet

Over 3.5 goals
2pts 13-10 bet365

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PSG vs Borussia Dortmund odds

PSG 1-2
Borussia Dortmund 6-1
Draw 15-4

Odds correct at time of publishing

PSG vs Borussia Dortmund predictions

This season's first three Champions League meetings between Paris St-Germain and Borussia Dortmund all rewarded backers of under 2.5 goals but Tuesday's semi-final second leg in Paris could buck that trend.

Dortmund take a 1-0 lead to the Parc des Princes thanks to a fine goal from Germany striker Niclas Fullkrug and they finished ahead of the French champions – as well as Milan and Newcastle – in Group F.

However, BVB lost 2-0 in Paris on matchday one of the group stage before a 1-1 draw in the return fixture and PSG remain favourites to qualify for the final despite last week's narrow loss in Germany.

There is no need for Luis Enrique's men to panic about the balance of the semi-final tie as they came back from 4-2 down on aggregate to beat Barcelona 6-4 in a compelling quarter-final clash.

Having lost 3-2 at home, PSG trailed 1-0 in Catalonia before a 29th-minute red card for Barca centre-back Ronald Araujo. The visitors took full advantage of that dismissal, easing to a 4-1 second-leg win and over 3.5 goals looks a solid bet as they aim to mount another comeback against Dortmund.

The 1-0 scoreline at the Westfalenstadion did not reflect the attacking quality on display. Manchester United loanee Jadon Sancho dazzled for Dortmund and PSG's Kylian Mbappe and Achraf Hakimi were both denied by the post in the space of 30 seconds.

The Parisians did not have a domestic fixture at the weekend and their last three Ligue 1 results were 4-1 wins over Lyon and Lorient and a 3-3 draw at home to Le Havre.

They have kept only one clean sheet in their last eight home matches in all competitions and will be forced into a defensive reshuffle after France international Lucas Hernandez suffered an ACL injury in the first leg.

Dortmund should be confident of landing a blow on the PSG rearguard, having beaten Atletico Madrid 4-2 in the quarter-final second leg to seal a 5-4 aggregate win.

They warmed up for the trip to Paris with a 5-1 Bundesliga victory over Augsburg, in which coach Edin Terzic rested several of his regular starters, but their last away game ended in a 4-1 loss at RB Leipzig.

BVB also conceded nine shots on target in their 2-1 quarter-final first-leg loss away to Atletico so they may struggle to keep Mbappe and his fellow forwards quiet in Paris.

Key stat

Five of PSG's last six matches in all competitions have produced over 3.5 goals

PSG vs Borussia Dortmund team news

PSG
Lucas Beraldo should start in place of injured centre-back Lucas Hernandez. Presnel Kimpembe, Layvin Kurzawa and Sergio Rico are likely to be PSG's only other injury absentees.

Borussia Dortmund
Julian Ryerson, Karim Adeyemi and Sebastien Haller are all in the squad despite minor injuries but Ramy Bensebaini and Julien Duranville remain sidelined.

Probable teams

PSG (4-3-3): Donnarumma; Hakimi, Marquinhos, Beraldo, Mendes; Ruiz, Vitinha, Zaire-Emery; Dembele, Ramos, Mbappe
Subs: Kolo Muani, Barcola, Danilo, Mukiele, Soler, Asensio, Kang-In Lee

Borussia Dortmund (4-2-3-1): Kobel; Ryerson, Hummels, Schlotterbeck, Maatsen; Sabitzer, Can; Sancho, Brandt, Adeyemi; Fullkrug
Subs: Wolf, Moukoko, Reus, Nmecha, Sule, Ozcan, Malen

Inside info

PSG

Star man Kylian Mbappe
Top scorer Kylian Mbappe
Penalty taker Kylian Mbappe
Card magnet Achraf Hakimi
Assist ace Ousmane Dembele
Set-piece aerial threat Marquinhos

Borussia Dortmund

Star man Julian Brandt
Top scorer Niclas Fullkrug
Penalty taker Niclas Fullkrug
Card magnet Ian Maatsen
Assist ace Julian Brandt
Set-piece aerial threat Nico Schlotterbeck

PSG vs Borussia Dortmund bet builder predictions

Both teams to score
Both teams have scored in seven of PSG's last eight home matches including the 3-2 Champions League quarter-final first-leg defeat to Barcelona

Kylian Mbappe to score at any time
The PSG superstar has scored in ten of his last 12 Champions League home games and was denied by the post in last week's defeat in Dortmund

Ian Maatsen to be shown a card
Dortmund's Chelsea loanee has picked up eight yellow cards in 19 Bundesliga and Champions League appearances, including one in the first leg

Pays out at 5-1 with Coral

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